The limits of speedcubing

[Vicenzo Guerino Cecchini]

Imagine that WCA keeps operating eternally. Do you think that there would be a point where no more WR would be broken, and people would just compete for big titles?

 

[Nevan J]

Do you think that there would be a point where no more WR would be broken, and people would just compete for big titles?

yes, but that would take a veryyyy long time to come, where almost no WR can be broken

 

[Abram Grimsley]

Imagine that WCA keeps operating eternally. Do you think that there would be a point where no more WR would be broken, and people would just compete for big titles?

I don't think we have to wait that long. I think, once, if ever, we hit sub-3, records will cease to be broken. Although, you never know!

 

[Mastermind2368]

If the WCA operates forever, I think that there would be longer and longer between the records. The focus would probably shift to titles and such, but I doubt we'd ever get to a point where the records can't be at least tied. Lets say that a competitor gets an insanely lucky solve that is sub 20 moves. Eventually, another competitor is bound to get another insanely lucky solve sub 20 moves, but they might have like 0.1 more tps and edge it out slightly. There could also potentially be people who only practice 3x3 single and recognizing good cases. If somebody spent all of their effort on that, they would eventually be able to get insane times.

 

[Joe Archibald]

I think at this point we will never see the fmc single record improved on

 

[Imsoosm]

I think at this point we will never see the fmc single record improved on

Then you will be very sadly mistaken.

 

[qwr]

Most records for any sport get beaten over time, even for extremely competitive ones such as track and field.

File:World record progression 100m men.svg - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

You see after 100 years people are still beating records, but the last record was set in 2009. It also shows how insane Usain Bolt was (every person on this chart was a generational talent)

1500 metres world record progression - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Hicham El Guerrouj beat the 1500 record with sheer determination in 1998 and remarkably hasn't been beaten yet

 

[voidrx]

I think sub-2 is the limit for 3x3 singles, and even then, that's absolutely ridiculous.
Fahmi Aulia Rachman's 2.36 single was 25 moves. This was a 10.59 average tps solve.
A 20 move scramble with that tps would get a time of around 1.88 seconds. It would probably be a little bit more because of pick up time, so maybe 1.9x but it would still be sub-2.

 

[qwr]

https://statistics.worldcubeassociation.org/record-evolution

bear in mind the recent flatline is from lack of comps.

more recent view looks more promising since cubing has exploded in popularity

 

[MasterIcePanda]

I think sub-2 is the limit for 3x3 singles, and even then, that's absolutely ridiculous.
Fahmi Aulia Rachman's 2.36 single was 25 moves. This was a 10.59 average tps solve.
A 20 move scramble with that tps would get a time of around 1.88 seconds. It would probably be a little bit more because of pick up time, so maybe 1.9x but it would still be sub-2.

When did Fahmi get a 2.36?

 

[Swagrid]

When did Fahmi get a 2.36?

31st May.

 

[Vicenzo Guerino Cecchini]

I think at this point we will never see the fmc single record improved on

I think that 15 is possible. There has been 15 optimal scrambles before. It might take a decade or two, but it is possible

 

[Waqfiqh cubing]

WR cannot be broken when people get sub1s

 

[Caden Fisher]

 

[OldSwiss]

That was a lucky scramble

The chance to get a fully solved cube after scrambling is 1 : 43 252 003 274 489 856 000 but it is existant

For the easier puzzles there is a rule to prevent too good scrambles, but as far as I see there is no such rule for 3x3.

WCA Regulations | World Cube Association

The World Cube Association governs competitions for mechanical puzzles that are operated by twisting groups of pieces, commonly known as 'twisty puzzles'. The most famous of these puzzles is the Rubik's Cube, invented by professor Rubik from Hungary. A selection of these puzzles are chosen as...

www.worldcubeassociation.org

Imagine a competition where all competitors of a round get such a scramble

 

[Jorian Meeuse]

For the easier puzzles there is a rule to prevent too good scrambles, but as far as I see there is no such rule for 3x3.

yes there is such a rule for 3x3, the other puzzles are exceptions to a general rule that also applies to 3x3:

• 4b3) Specification for a scramble program: An official scramble sequence must produce a random state from all states that require at least 2 moves to solve (equal probability for each state). The following additions/exceptions apply:
  • 4b3a) For blindfolded events, the scramble sequence must orient the puzzle randomly (equal probability for each orientation).
  • 4b3b) 2x2x2 Cube: The (random) state must require at least 4 moves to solve.
  • 4b3c) Skewb: The (random) state must require at least 7 moves to solve.
  • 4b3d) Square-1: The (random) state must require at least 11 moves to solve.
  • 4b3e) 5x5x5 Cube, 6x6x6 Cube, 7x7x7 Cube, and Megaminx: sufficiently many random moves (instead of random state), at least 2 moves to solve.
  • 4b3f) Pyraminx: The (random) state must require at least 6 moves to solve.

 

[Mike Hughey]

I think that 15 is possible. There has been 15 optimal scrambles before. It might take a decade or two, but it is possible

About one in 9000 scrambles are 14 optimal. There were over 1000 competitions last year that held fewest moves. If we assume an average of 3 attempts at each of those, that means 3000 official scrambles per year. That means we should get a 14 optimal scramble every 3 years or so. The way good FMCers tend to go to as many official competitions as they can, one would think that within a few decades, a 14 should be possible.

Edit: Oops. The WCA website is a little flaky in how it shows the competitions. I think I misread it, and it's actually saying there were only 217 competitions with FMC last year. That drops the likelihood significantly. But still, 15 seems very much within reach, and 14 is certainly possible.

 

[Cuber987]

I think that the world records would never COMPLETELY stop, but as seen in recent years, they are slowing down. Eventually, they'll be every few years or so that someone gets a WR, but I think even that will take at least a couple decades.

 

[Running for cube]

I think that the only time this could happen soon could, (very very rarely) occur for fmc if fmc solvers got a four mover. Clearly if this happened the wr can’t get better.

EDIT: two mover whoops.

 

[abunickabhi]

About one in 9000 scrambles are 14 optimal. There were over 1000 competitions last year that held fewest moves. If we assume an average of 3 attempts at each of those, that means 3000 official scrambles per year. That means we should get a 14 optimal scramble every 3 years or so. The way good FMCers tend to go to as many official competitions as they can, one would think that within a few decades, a 14 should be possible.

Edit: Oops. The WCA website is a little flaky in how it shows the competitions. I think I misread it, and it's actually saying there were only 217 competitions with FMC last year. That drops the likelihood significantly. But still, 15 seems very much within reach, and 14 is certainly possible.

That's a nice rough calculation.

If a good FMCer gets a 14 optimal, it would be too scary as bettering that event would be impossible and we can endlessly tie/share that record in the coming decades.