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How the 3.47 WR changes cubing

Matt—

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Nov 5, 2018
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84
This is just my opinion.

So, as many of you know the 3x3 WR was beaten. It went from 4.22 to 3.47. This is a huge leap in a world record, and could change cubing forever.

First off, the WR was beaten by a Cuber who almost no one knew. Everyone thought Max/Feliks/Jay would get it, but did not. Is this important? Yes. Very much so. Why? Because it shows that people who, even though they are unknown can still achieve major accomplishments. I am inspired by this and makes me want to try harder to get a world record someday.

Secondly, 3.47 is an insane time, and may possibly be the peak of the 3x3 single WR. This is a disappointment to some, but also a challenge to others. Or, it may even cause some to stop 3x3 and practice different cubes (skewb, 4x4, Megaminx, etc.) This May be a good thing as cubing is mostly centered around 3x3, and it is good to get people to practice other events and have fun with not only 3x3, but also with other events. (Or if you think one day you can beat the 3x3 WR, then this is an amazing challenge for you. - Good Luck)

And for my third point I will be discussing how this affects world records. This has already been discussed by many, and only now has there been evidence of this happening, is that the 3x3 WR has gotten to a point where it is almost unbeatable. Is the WCA going to add a yearly record or something? If not, then the 3.47 WR could stay forever.

These were just my thoughts on what might happen, and could be completely different. I have no clue, but I am excited to see the future of cubing.
 

Matt—

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after this 3x3 WR happens, i super lazy to play 3x3 (two handed) anymore.

now i just play big cube and 3x3 one handed
Yep, that’s what my point is. It’s getting too difficult to beat the WR and now people are switching to other events.
 

Matt—

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I think if a cuber only draws motivation from their wish to beat some world record, they're going to crash and burn anyway. I don't think that's enough to be the sole motivation behind cubing.
Interesting. I hadn’t thought about that. (Also, my motivation is not to beat a WR, it’s for fun because I love cubing, im just talking about world records in the sense that if someone were to try and achieve the world record, they may not be able to.)
 

efattah

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Feb 14, 2016
Messages
524
The record used just 27 moves. Even the method I am developing (LMCF) which uses an average of 43 moves, only gets a 28 move solution 1 in 5000+ solves. The 3x3 record now not only requires incredible skill, but incredible luck too, since 27 moves is a crazy low amount for any method. Even at home. Let alone in a competition.
 

xyzzy

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Dec 24, 2015
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First off, the WR was beaten by a Cuber who almost no one knew. Everyone thought Max/Feliks/Jay would get it, but did not. Is this important? Yes. Very much so. Why? Because it shows that people who, even though they are unknown can still achieve major accomplishments. I am inspired by this and makes me want to try harder to get a world record someday.
>Jay

Let's be fair here. Jay doesn't regularly get sub-6 averages the way Max and Feliks do. Also, Steve Cho was relatively unknown when he had the 4.59 WR single too, and I don't see you mentioning him at all (so arguably he's still unknown? lol).

And for my third point I will be discussing how this affects world records. This has already been discussed by many, and only now has there been evidence of this happening, is that the 3x3 WR has gotten to a point where it is almost unbeatable. Is the WCA going to add a yearly record or something? If not, then the 3.47 WR could stay forever.
World championships! Held once every two years, the winner gets to be crowned the world champion for two years until the next one.
 

Mr Cubism

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Also, this WR could easily have been (with no recorded proof) suspected and debated as legit or not legit (in endless speculations) if it was not randomly recorded. That lucky footage saved it all.

To prevent the lack of any documented WR proof in the future, an actioncam (or similar) could be mounted high up in a corner in the competition room just to get a visual proof?!
 
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Julio974

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Oct 17, 2018
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France
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The average world records truely indicates the best speedcuber, as luck has almost no effect in it. The WCA may also add consecutive means or averages, just taking in account the consecutive solves (like Ao12, Ao50 or Ao100)
 

Cefe origol

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Nov 24, 2018
Messages
6
A yearly record exists, In the WCA website change where it says "All Years" change it to "Only ____" but no one uses this stats. Still I think cubing has potential. If this is possible, I think the 3x3 single is far from dead. A 20 move solve with 12 tps is TPS, thats a 1.666 seconds, with modern cubes and this community growing I think it won't be long untill a sub 1.5.
 

Gomorrite

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Jan 20, 2010
Messages
470
A yearly record exists, In the WCA website change where it says "All Years" change it to "Only ____" but no one uses this stats. Still I think cubing has potential. If this is possible, I think the 3x3 single is far from dead. A 20 move solve with 12 tps is TPS, thats a 1.666 seconds, with modern cubes and this community growing I think it won't be long untill a sub 1.5.
Are you saying that a person can calculate in less than 15 seconds a solution as good as the current FMC WR and execute it at 12 TPS?
 

Sajwo

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A yearly record exists, In the WCA website change where it says "All Years" change it to "Only ____" but no one uses this stats. Still I think cubing has potential. If this is possible, I think the 3x3 single is far from dead. A 20 move solve with 12 tps is TPS, thats a 1.666 seconds, with modern cubes and this community growing I think it won't be long untill a sub 1.5.
well, I agree that 20 move solution is possible (take for example current WR and assume it could have additional oll skip), but I wouldn't say "won't be long" :rolleyes:

Are you saying that a person can calculate in less than 15 seconds a solution as good as the current FMC WR and execute it at 12 TPS?
without advanced technology involved humans will never be able to do that
 

Cefe origol

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Nov 24, 2018
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Are you saying that a person can calculate in less than 15 seconds a solution as good as the current FMC WR and execute it at 12 TPS?
Yes I am. Feliks 4.22 had 38 moves and it wasn't even skip. seungboem's 4.59 had 30 moves. 3.745 has 27 moves. So it wouldn't be very rare to see a sub-25 move WR. In terms of TPS, WRs normally have around 7.5. Feliks 4.22 had 9.001 TPS. The UWR of TPS in a solve is of 12.68. It will probably take some time before a 12 TPS official solve is out, but Its humanly possible. I also think cubers like Feliks, Mats, Max, Lucas, Patrick Ponce, Nahm, and others will need to relearn inspection. In those 15 seconds, they should be able to onelook 2-3 pairs. This will be the solve:
  • 8-12 moves for cross+2 pairs. At 9 TPS because this is being onelooked. Odds: Not a Clue
  • 3 moves for 3rd pair. 3 for last pair. At 7 tps. Odds: 29.6 percent
  • 6-8 move OLL. At 7 TPS.Odds:23 percent
  • PLL skip. Odds:1/72
  • Not get nervous. Odds:1/30(Its much less)
Giving us at most a 3.6.
The Odds of all of these happening is of 0.0003 percent per solve that passes step 1. 0.0015 percent per ao5. 0.005 percent per comp(3 rounds). Feliks went to 17 comps this year(10 months), so the odds per 3 months is 89.7 percent. This is if they pass step 1 but still, if their is a 1/100 probability, and 25 cubers try, it will take 13 months with current technology, because the WR broken yesteday, is almost 1 second below Telesforo 4.41 in 2013, In 5 years a simingly fake solve has turned into a far from WR solve.

well, I agree that 20 move solution is possible (take for example current WR and assume it could have additional oll skip), but I wouldn't say "won't be long" :rolleyes:



without advanced technology involved humans will never be able to do that
13 months isn't that long.
 

Matt—

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Nov 5, 2018
Messages
84
Wow, all of you have excellent points here. I like what was said about the averages showing the skill of a Cuber. That’s what truly means everything. My point though (and I have not mentioned this previously) is that if a non Cuber was interested in starting cubing, then learned beginners decided to check out the world record. It may make them lose their motivation to cube.
 
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Sajwo

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Are you saying that a person can calculate in less than 15 seconds a solution as good as the current FMC WR and execute it at 12 TPS?
Yes I am. Feliks 4.22 had 38 moves and it wasn't even skip. seungboem's 4.59 had 30 moves. 3.745 has 27 moves. So it wouldn't be very rare to see a sub-25 move WR. In terms of TPS, WRs normally have around 7.5. Feliks 4.22 had 9.001 TPS. The UWR of TPS in a solve is of 12.68. It will probably take some time before a 12 TPS official solve is out, but Its humanly possible. I also think cubers like Feliks, Mats, Max, Lucas, Patrick Ponce, Nahm, and others will need to relearn inspection. In those 15 seconds, they should be able to onelook 2-3 pairs. This will be the solve:
  • 8-12 moves for cross+2 pairs. At 9 TPS because this is being onelooked. Odds: Not a Clue
  • 3 moves for 3rd pair. 3 for last pair. At 7 tps. Odds: 29.6 percent
  • 6-8 move OLL. At 7 TPS.Odds:23 percent
  • PLL skip. Odds:1/72
  • Not get nervous. Odds:1/30(Its much less)
Giving us at most a 3.6.
The Odds of all of these happening is of 0.0003 percent per solve that passes step 1. 0.0015 percent per ao5. 0.005 percent per comp(3 rounds). Feliks went to 17 comps this year(10 months), so the odds per 3 months is 89.7 percent. This is if they pass step 1 but still, if their is a 1/100 probability, and 25 cubers try, it will take 13 months with current technology, because the WR broken yesteday, is almost 1 second below Telesforo 4.41 in 2013, In 5 years a simingly fake solve has turned into a far from WR solve.


13 months isn't that long.
Well, his point was that it's impossible to see whole <20 solution in inspection time. Besides that your probability calculations for last 2 slots are wrong , you can't also assume that there is only one possible way to achieve fast solve (for example xcross and 2 easy pair with LL skip could also result in ~3s solve) and you don't have enough data from top level speedcubers about their solves to even calculate the probability of ~3s solve
 

Cefe origol

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Wow, all of you have excellent points here. I like what was said about the averages showing the skill of a Cuber. That’s what truly means everything. My point though (and I have not mentioned this previously) is that if a non Cuber was interested in starting cubing, then learned beginners decided to check out the world record. It may make them lose their motivation to cube.
or may be twice as motivated. When I started out the world record was 5.25 and I avraged 12 minutes but I kept on practicing to see I could beat it. Many will quit, but others will see it as a challenge. As another example, the WR of cards memorization is in 13 seconds, but if I saw someone memorizing a deck of cards in 2 minutes, it will still be as impresive. Just because a 16 yo asian dude is better than you does not make you less impresive.
 

Matt—

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Nov 5, 2018
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or may be twice as motivated. When I started out the world record was 5.25 and I avraged 12 minutes but I kept on practicing to see I could beat it. Many will quit, but others will see it as a challenge. As another example, the WR of cards memorization is in 13 seconds, but if I saw someone memorizing a deck of cards in 2 minutes, it will still be as impresive. Just because a 16 yo asian dude is better than you does not make you less impresive.
Yes, I did mention that in my first post. I said others may quit, while some may take it at a challenge. It all depends on your personality.
 

DGCubes

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Yes I am. Feliks 4.22 had 38 moves and it wasn't even skip. seungboem's 4.59 had 30 moves. 3.745 has 27 moves. So it wouldn't be very rare to see a sub-25 move WR. In terms of TPS, WRs normally have around 7.5. Feliks 4.22 had 9.001 TPS. The UWR of TPS in a solve is of 12.68. It will probably take some time before a 12 TPS official solve is out, but Its humanly possible. I also think cubers like Feliks, Mats, Max, Lucas, Patrick Ponce, Nahm, and others will need to relearn inspection. In those 15 seconds, they should be able to onelook 2-3 pairs. This will be the solve:
  • 8-12 moves for cross+2 pairs. At 9 TPS because this is being onelooked. Odds: Not a Clue
  • 3 moves for 3rd pair. 3 for last pair. At 7 tps. Odds: 29.6 percent
  • 6-8 move OLL. At 7 TPS.Odds:23 percent
  • PLL skip. Odds:1/72
  • Not get nervous. Odds:1/30(Its much less)
Giving us at most a 3.6.
The Odds of all of these happening is of 0.0003 percent per solve that passes step 1. 0.0015 percent per ao5. 0.005 percent per comp(3 rounds). Feliks went to 17 comps this year(10 months), so the odds per 3 months is 89.7 percent. This is if they pass step 1 but still, if their is a 1/100 probability, and 25 cubers try, it will take 13 months with current technology, because the WR broken yesteday, is almost 1 second below Telesforo 4.41 in 2013, In 5 years a simingly fake solve has turned into a far from WR solve.


13 months isn't that long.
I agree that this WR is far from unbeatable, but some of this math is pretty far off. :p

Let's eliminate the probability of nerves since that's so hard to estimate, just so we can get an idea of how many solves have WR potential. Given your other probabilities, we end up with a 0.000946 chance of a potential WR solve. I'm very skeptical of your 29.6% estimate for 2 three-move pairs in a row (and @Sajwo brings up some good points above), so let's be conservative and estimate a 0.0001 chance of a potential WR solve.

You can't add probabilities like you did in your post; the correct formula for the chances of a WR-potential solve is:
\[ 1-(1-P)^n \] where P is the probability of a given single solve having WR potential, and n is the amount of solves done. Let's say we want a 50/50 chance of a WR-potential solve. This would require: \[ (0.9999)^n=0.5 \]

Solving for n we get approximately 6931 solves.

This means, assuming each solve has a 0.0001 chance of having WR potential if done by a world class cuber (which is a very hard number to accurately estimate), 6931 official solves would need to be done by world class 3x3 solvers in order for there to be a 50% chance of one of these solves showing up. Additionally like you mentioned, they would have to control their nerves, which is definitely quite difficult to do.

I'd be surprised if this record is broken before 2020, but it's totally possible for it to be broken. These calculations make too many assumptions no matter what, since we can't account for improvements in hardware and solving methods. There's always a chance of someone coming up with a method that gets 30-move solves on average, and in that case, a 10TPS average solve would beat the record. :p
 
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