# How many times daily does your average get messed up by the last 2 solves?

#### DavidSanders

##### Member
How many times a day does a good average for you get messed up by the last 1 or 2 solves? I ask this question because I was just doing an average that probably could have been my personal best average of 5, but I popped on my 4th solve and got a DNF, and then my last solve completely messed up.
Here is the average:

Average: 23.49
Standard Deviation: 0.00
Best Time: 21.57
Worst Time: DNF
Individual Times:
1. 22.45 L' R2 D2 L R B F2 L' F' D2 B F2 D U2 L D' U' R2 U B F' D2 U2 L D2
2. 22.97 F2 U B R D' F' U' F D2 U L' U' L2 R' B' D' U' L' B2 F2 U' L2 B F' R'
3. (21.57) L R2 F' L B' F' D2 U' L2 F2 R D2 L2 D L2 R' D2 F2 U L2 R U L' R U'
4. (DNF) L B R2 B F2 U L R' F' L D' R2 U2 B L' R' B' L R2 D' L2 D2 L2 R2 U'
5. 25.05 B2 F2 D2 U' R' D U B' F' L R F2 U' B L' D B L' R D' U L R' D U

I know I could have done better on the first 2 solves, so I guess I kind of got my hopes up during that last 2 solves and completely messed up. This usually happens around 10 times a day or more depending on how many solves I do.

I searched and could not find a thread like this, so sorry if it is repeated.

#### piemaster

##### Member
This COULD be caused by nervousness...

#### Spitfire97

##### Member
How many times a day does a good average for you get messed up by the last 1 or 2 solves? I ask this question because I was just doing an average that probably could have been my personal best average of 5, but I popped on my 4th solve and got a DNF, and then my last solve completely messed up.
Here is the average:

Average: 23.49
Standard Deviation: 0.00
Best Time: 21.57
Worst Time: DNF
Individual Times:
1. 22.45 L' R2 D2 L R B F2 L' F' D2 B F2 D U2 L D' U' R2 U B F' D2 U2 L D2
2. 22.97 F2 U B R D' F' U' F D2 U L' U' L2 R' B' D' U' L' B2 F2 U' L2 B F' R'
3. (21.57) L R2 F' L B' F' D2 U' L2 F2 R D2 L2 D L2 R' D2 F2 U L2 R U L' R U'
4. (DNF) L B R2 B F2 U L R' F' L D' R2 U2 B L' R' B' L R2 D' L2 D2 L2 R2 U'
5. 25.05 B2 F2 D2 U' R' D U B' F' L R F2 U' B L' D B L' R D' U L R' D U

I know I could have done better on the first 2 solves, so I guess I kind of got my hopes up during that last 2 solves and completely messed up. This usually happens around 10 times a day or more depending on how many solves I do.

I searched and could not find a thread like this, so sorry if it is repeated.

I just got my PB of 12(18.97) and I screwed up on 2 solves But still a PB

This does happen to me alot.

#### Stefan

##### Member
This usually happens around 10 times a day or more depending on how many solves I do.
How often do you mess up a good average by the *first* two solves? And how often by the first and fourth?

#### DavidSanders

##### Member
This usually happens around 10 times a day or more depending on how many solves I do.
How often do you mess up a good average by the *first* two solves? And how often by the first and fourth?
I usually mess up the first two solves around 3 averages a day. In fact it just happened. What do you mean by first and fourth? Did you mean fourth and fifth?

#### Stefan

##### Member
What do you mean by first and fourth? Did you mean fourth and fifth?
No, if I had meant fourth and fifth, I would've said fourth and fifth. I meant first and fourth. I could've equally well asked for third and fifth or any other combination, I didn't really care. Why do you seem to be surprised I asked for first and fourth? Are you observing the cases of last two (and first two) more actively than other combinations? You might be suffering from confirmation (or some other) bias.

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#### ManasijV

##### Member
I like the way you **** people off

#### DavidSanders

##### Member
This usually happens around 10 times a day or more depending on how many solves I do.
How often do you mess up a good average by the *first* two solves? And how often by the first and fourth?

What do you mean by first and fourth? Did you mean fourth and fifth?
No, if I had meant fourth and fifth, I would've said fourth and fifth. I meant first and fourth. I could've equally well asked for third and fifth or any other combination, I didn't really care. Why do you seem to be surprised I asked for first and fourth? Are you observing the cases of last two (and first two) more actively than other combinations? You might be suffering from confirmation (or some other) bias.

You might be right about the bias part. Thanks for the sort of advice. Now I will start looking at all of the scrambles equally in order to get a more consistent average. Thanks Stefan.

#### Stefan

##### Member
Ok, good. Maybe you remember/count more mess-ups by the last two solves not because there truly are more, but because after the first three solves you see you're good so you pay more attention. If on the other hand you only screw up let's say the second and third solves, then that average wasn't good at any point and you therefore might not realize it and ignore it. At the very least you ought to tell the number of averages as well, not only "it happens 10 times a day". Purely by chance, the probability that the last two solves are the worst is about 1/10. So if you do 100 averages a day, then you ought to expect 10 averages with the last two solves being the worst. Purely by chance, not for any psychological reasons.

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#### DavidSanders

##### Member
Hmm, that is interesting. I should probably not focus on the mistakes in order to avoid the last two solves turning bad. I think I will do 50 averages some time in the next two days in order to find out the different probabilities. I will post that on this thread later to see which errors recur the most.