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Basically, this is about getting an edge matched with an adjacent corner on a randomly scrambled cube.

I'm usually not so bad at proba, but I get really stick on that one. I don't even know where to start :/ Any ideo to start with will be really apreciated

Yes, I was considering this thread, but I think the problem is way too complex and would have messed up the thread.

I have noticed in my practice that it seems quite common, but not on enough scrambles to have an accurante result (I guess something like 0.4 is a realistic estimation).

The probability thread kinda sucks since it's too flooded with questions like "What's the probability for getting two PLL skips in a row?". I've tried to ask non-trivial questions, but to no avail. :/

The probability thread kinda sucks since it's too flooded with questions like "What's the probability for getting two PLL skips in a row?". I've tried to ask non-trivial questions, but to no avail. :/

Yeah, of course I know that, hence the "about" and squiggle marks. I was posting it because I thought this calculation should have been an obvious first step, but no one has done it in this thread yet.

I tried looking at it via inclusion-exclusion a previous time it was brought up. It got quite difficult quite quickly. How is a 1x1x3 to be handled? Is this two separate 1x1x2 pairs? How about a 2x2x2? Is this 3 separate 1x1x2 pairs? Those were the issues I ran into with such an approach.