# Case Likelihoods Questions

Discussion in 'Cubing Help & Questions' started by Captainmajestik, Mar 20, 2012.

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1. ### CaptainmajestikMember

24
0
Feb 8, 2012
On Badmephisto's site, it has the likelihoods of each PLL case coming up, and most of them say 1/18. But I don't really think that's exact, because I seem to see the G's and N perms pop up a lot more than it says they should be.

So, are those right?

And as an extension of the above, what perms do you guys see pop up more than most?

2. ### StefanMember

7,287
15
May 7, 2006
WCA:
2003POCH01
StefanPochmann
Yes.

None, cause most pop up equally often (all those with 1/18).

In general, if you can't decide whether math is right or your gut feeling based on your individual experience distorted by biased recall is right... go with math.

Last edited: Mar 20, 2012

Aug 12, 2010
Aberdeen, Scotland
Godmil
Well statistically 2 in 9 solves should be G perms, which is a lot, I'd be suprised if you felt they were even more common than that.

4. ### CaptainmajestikMember

24
0
Feb 8, 2012
Well, I tend to include G and R's together, because I base it off of how often I have to do A+U, and I don't know the both of those yet. Fortunately, those are the last ones I have left before I know full PLL, so yeah.

Aug 12, 2010
Aberdeen, Scotland
Godmil
Yeah, ok, so that's 1 in 3 solves.

6. ### applemobileMember

858
2
Jan 8, 2012
exeter uk
I will go a whole day without a G-perm followed by about 5 in a row. True story. Same goes for pll skips, I often get two in a row.

7. ### Sa967StNot A Moderator

3,794
17
Mar 11, 2008
WCA:
2007STRO01
Sa967St
PLLs with that look different from all sides: 1/18
PLLs with that look the same from 2 sides: 1/36
PLLs with that look the same from all sides: 1/72

The distribution should be roughly the same as their likelihoods, if you don't purposely affect PLL in any way during OLL. If you remember certain PLLs popping up more than others with the same likelihoods, it's probably because you don't pay enough attention. People tend to only remember things that they choose to remember. Let's say someone whose favourite PLL is J(a) does an average of 100. If he gets about 10 J(a) perms, he'll probably remember that he has lots of J(a) perms, but not realize that he also had about 10 R(a) perms.

Does anyone remember this?

Last edited: Mar 20, 2012
8. ### StefanMember

7,287
15
May 7, 2006
WCA:
2003POCH01
StefanPochmann
There are PLLs in both 2) and 3) (because "A and B" is a subset of "A or B").
I'd say T/Y/F/V are in 2) but all have 1/18.
I'd say the Ns are in 1) (*) but they have 1/72.

But I might misunderstand what you mean. Does the "/" in "horizontal/vertical" mean "and", "or" or "combined" or something else?

(*) As in they have no "line" of symmetry. They do have *rotational* symmetry which is the real reason for the differing probabilities.

Last edited: Mar 20, 2012

3,794
17
Mar 11, 2008
WCA:
2007STRO01