Case Likelihoods Questions

Discussion in 'Cubing Help & Questions' started by Captainmajestik, Mar 20, 2012.

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  1. Captainmajestik

    Captainmajestik Member

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    Feb 8, 2012
    On Badmephisto's site, it has the likelihoods of each PLL case coming up, and most of them say 1/18. But I don't really think that's exact, because I seem to see the G's and N perms pop up a lot more than it says they should be.

    So, are those right?

    And as an extension of the above, what perms do you guys see pop up more than most?
     
  2. Stefan

    Stefan Member

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    WCA:
    2003POCH01
    YouTube:
    StefanPochmann
    Yes.

    None, cause most pop up equally often (all those with 1/18).

    In general, if you can't decide whether math is right or your gut feeling based on your individual experience distorted by biased recall is right... go with math.
     
    Last edited: Mar 20, 2012
  3. Godmil

    Godmil Premium Member

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    Well statistically 2 in 9 solves should be G perms, which is a lot, I'd be suprised if you felt they were even more common than that.
     
  4. Captainmajestik

    Captainmajestik Member

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    Feb 8, 2012
    Well, I tend to include G and R's together, because I base it off of how often I have to do A+U, and I don't know the both of those yet. Fortunately, those are the last ones I have left before I know full PLL, so yeah.
     
  5. Godmil

    Godmil Premium Member

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    Yeah, ok, so that's 1 in 3 solves.
     
  6. applemobile

    applemobile Member

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    Jan 8, 2012
    exeter uk
    I will go a whole day without a G-perm followed by about 5 in a row. True story. Same goes for pll skips, I often get two in a row.
     
  7. Sa967St

    Sa967St Moderator Staff Member

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    Kingston, ON, Canada
    WCA:
    2007STRO01
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    Sa967St
    PLLs with that look different from all sides: 1/18
    PLLs with that look the same from 2 sides: 1/36
    PLLs with that look the same from all sides: 1/72

    The distribution should be roughly the same as their likelihoods, if you don't purposely affect PLL in any way during OLL. If you remember certain PLLs popping up more than others with the same likelihoods, it's probably because you don't pay enough attention. People tend to only remember things that they choose to remember. Let's say someone whose favourite PLL is J(a) does an average of 100. If he gets about 10 J(a) perms, he'll probably remember that he has lots of J(a) perms, but not realize that he also had about 10 R(a) perms.

    Does anyone remember this?
    http://www.speedsolving.com/forum/showthread.php?13330-Quick-experiment-need-participants
     
    Last edited: Mar 20, 2012
  8. Stefan

    Stefan Member

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    There are PLLs in both 2) and 3) (because "A and B" is a subset of "A or B").
    I'd say T/Y/F/V are in 2) but all have 1/18.
    I'd say the Ns are in 1) (*) but they have 1/72.

    But I might misunderstand what you mean. Does the "/" in "horizontal/vertical" mean "and", "or" or "combined" or something else?

    (*) As in they have no "line" of symmetry. They do have *rotational* symmetry which is the real reason for the differing probabilities.
     
    Last edited: Mar 20, 2012
  9. Sa967St

    Sa967St Moderator Staff Member

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    WCA:
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    Nah, I just failed at explaining. I think my post makes more sense now.
     
  10. I tend to get a lot of G perms too. I think that is because there are four G cases, so they should occur four times as often. That's always been my perception of it, correct me if I am wrong.
     

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