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Thread: Case Likelihoods Questions

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    Default Case Likelihoods Questions

    On Badmephisto's site, it has the likelihoods of each PLL case coming up, and most of them say 1/18. But I don't really think that's exact, because I seem to see the G's and N perms pop up a lot more than it says they should be.

    So, are those right?

    And as an extension of the above, what perms do you guys see pop up more than most?

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    Member Stefan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Captainmajestik View Post
    So, are those right?
    Yes.

    Quote Originally Posted by Captainmajestik View Post
    And as an extension of the above, what perms do you guys see pop up more than most?
    None, cause most pop up equally often (all those with 1/18).

    In general, if you can't decide whether math is right or your gut feeling based on your individual experience distorted by biased recall is right... go with math.
    Last edited by Stefan; 03-20-2012 at 02:13 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Captainmajestik View Post
    I seem to see the G's and N perms pop up a lot more than it says they should be.
    Well statistically 2 in 9 solves should be G perms, which is a lot, I'd be suprised if you felt they were even more common than that.
    3X3 Warp 2: (Snl/5/12) 15.26, 18.77, 20.78.

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    Well, I tend to include G and R's together, because I base it off of how often I have to do A+U, and I don't know the both of those yet. Fortunately, those are the last ones I have left before I know full PLL, so yeah.

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    Premium Member Godmil's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Captainmajestik View Post
    Well, I tend to include G and R's together
    Yeah, ok, so that's 1 in 3 solves.
    3X3 Warp 2: (Snl/5/12) 15.26, 18.77, 20.78.

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    I will go a whole day without a G-perm followed by about 5 in a row. True story. Same goes for pll skips, I often get two in a row.

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    PLLs with that look different from all sides: 1/18
    PLLs with that look the same from 2 sides: 1/36
    PLLs with that look the same from all sides: 1/72

    Quote Originally Posted by Captainmajestik View Post
    And as an extension of the above, what perms do you guys see pop up more than most?
    The distribution should be roughly the same as their likelihoods, if you don't purposely affect PLL in any way during OLL. If you remember certain PLLs popping up more than others with the same likelihoods, it's probably because you don't pay enough attention. People tend to only remember things that they choose to remember. Let's say someone whose favourite PLL is J(a) does an average of 100. If he gets about 10 J(a) perms, he'll probably remember that he has lots of J(a) perms, but not realize that he also had about 10 R(a) perms.

    Does anyone remember this?
    http://www.speedsolving.com/forum/sh...d-participants
    Last edited by Sa967St; 03-20-2012 at 02:37 PM. Reason: wording

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sa967St View Post
    1) PLLs with no lines of symmetry: 1/18
    2) PLLs with horizontal/vertical symmetry, or diagonal symmetry: 1/36
    3) PLLs with diagonal symmetry and horizontal/vertical symmetry: 1/72
    There are PLLs in both 2) and 3) (because "A and B" is a subset of "A or B").
    I'd say T/Y/F/V are in 2) but all have 1/18.
    I'd say the Ns are in 1) (*) but they have 1/72.

    But I might misunderstand what you mean. Does the "/" in "horizontal/vertical" mean "and", "or" or "combined" or something else?

    (*) As in they have no "line" of symmetry. They do have *rotational* symmetry which is the real reason for the differing probabilities.
    Last edited by Stefan; 03-20-2012 at 01:14 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Stefan View Post
    But I might misunderstand what you mean. Does the "/" in "horizontal/vertical" mean "and", "or" or "combined" or something else?
    Nah, I just failed at explaining. I think my post makes more sense now.

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    I tend to get a lot of G perms too. I think that is because there are four G cases, so they should occur four times as often. That's always been my perception of it, correct me if I am wrong.
    3x3: 1/5/12/100 14.39/18.58/21.10/22.95

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