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Overland Park Open 2017

Draranor

Premium Member
Joined
Jan 8, 2016
Messages
204
Location
Arkansas
WCA
2016REIC01
I'm so glad this comp has 4x4, I was hoping someone would organise one with it before the cutoff for nats, so I can try to get a qualifying time. Also, if you need anymore staff (judges, scramblers, etc.), I'd be more than happy to help out
 

aybuck37

Member
Joined
Feb 11, 2016
Messages
437
WCA
2015BUCK03
I'm so glad this comp has 4x4, I was hoping someone would organise one with it before the cutoff for nats, so I can try to get a qualifying time. Also, if you need anymore staff (judges, scramblers, etc.), I'd be more than happy to help out
Can't wait to see you there!
 
Joined
Aug 16, 2014
Messages
2,987
Location
Webster Groves, MO
WCA
2013BARK01
If Chris doesn't go I'm almost guaranteed to podium either 2x2 or 3x3, probably both. He still should go though, he's a cool guy, I'll just make sure to do well :)

So once this is full I'm going to do a simulation for all people who have been to a comp before. How it will work is:
1) Collect all their times from (up to) their last 3 competitions.
2) Select a random competition but weight the competitions by 1/[days since comp*number of valid solves at comp] (A competition 4 weeks ago with 14 valid solves (excl. a DNF) would have a weight of 1/392)
3) Select a random solve from that competition, add or subtract 3% of the time, 1% chance of DNF
4) Repeat steps 2-3 five times
5) Repeat steps 1-4 for each competitor
6) Sort by average
7) Re-do with only second round peeps (top 24)
8) Sort by average again
9) Re-do with only finals peeps (top 12)
10) Sort by average again
11) Repeat lots of times and collect statistics along the way
12) Post boring and/or flawed statistics to the forum
 

aybuck37

Member
Joined
Feb 11, 2016
Messages
437
WCA
2015BUCK03
If Chris doesn't go I'm almost guaranteed to podium either 2x2 or 3x3, probably both. He still should go though, he's a cool guy, I'll just make sure to do well :)

So once this is full I'm going to do a simulation for all people who have been to a comp before. How it will work is:
1) Collect all their times from (up to) their last 3 competitions.
2) Select a random competition but weight the competitions by 1/[days since comp*number of valid solves at comp] (A competition 4 weeks ago with 14 valid solves (excl. a DNF) would have a weight of 1/392)
3) Select a random solve from that competition, add or subtract 3% of the time, 1% chance of DNF
4) Repeat steps 2-3 five times
5) Repeat steps 1-4 for each competitor
6) Sort by average
7) Re-do with only second round peeps (top 24)
8) Sort by average again
9) Re-do with only finals peeps (top 12)
10) Sort by average again
11) Repeat lots of times and collect statistics along the way
12) Post boring and/or flawed statistics to the forum
woah. tell me how i do in the simulation
 

biscuit

Member
Joined
Sep 8, 2014
Messages
1,811
Location
Kansas City
WCA
2015WEBS01
YouTube
Visit Channel
If Chris doesn't go I'm almost guaranteed to podium either 2x2 or 3x3, probably both. He still should go though, he's a cool guy, I'll just make sure to do well :)

So once this is full I'm going to do a simulation for all people who have been to a comp before. How it will work is:
1) Collect all their times from (up to) their last 3 competitions.
2) Select a random competition but weight the competitions by 1/[days since comp*number of valid solves at comp] (A competition 4 weeks ago with 14 valid solves (excl. a DNF) would have a weight of 1/392)
3) Select a random solve from that competition, add or subtract 3% of the time, 1% chance of DNF
4) Repeat steps 2-3 five times
5) Repeat steps 1-4 for each competitor
6) Sort by average
7) Re-do with only second round peeps (top 24)
8) Sort by average again
9) Re-do with only finals peeps (top 12)
10) Sort by average again
11) Repeat lots of times and collect statistics along the way
12) Post boring and/or flawed statistics to the forum

Well, Chris is sure he is able to go.

RIP Justin's podiums :p

I'm interested in this simulation thing. How are you doing it? I.E are you using custom functions in excel/google docs, or coding in a programming language? If so, which one? Lastly, would you be willing to share the code?

Now for questions on how it'll work. Will you be repeating it many times and averaging the results (as they do for sports simulations)? Do you mean add/subtract a straight 3%? I feel like add/subtract 0-3% is a better way to do it.

I'd love to review some code for you if you'd like.
 
Joined
Aug 16, 2014
Messages
2,987
Location
Webster Groves, MO
WCA
2013BARK01
RIP Justin's podiums :p
of course not!
I'm interested in this simulation thing. How are you doing it? I.E are you using custom functions in excel/google docs, or coding in a programming language?
Programming language, although a spreadsheet would be cool if I could figure that out
If so, which one?
Processing because it's simple enough for my little brain to comprehend
Lastly, would you be willing to share the code?
Sure, it's not like it'd be any good :p
Now for questions on how it'll work. Will you be repeating it many times and averaging the results (as they do for sports simulations)?
Yeah.
Do you mean add/subtract a straight 3%? I feel like add/subtract 0-3% is a better way to do it.
Yeah, basically do time*random(0.9709, 1.03)
I'd love to review some code for you if you'd like.
I'll post the "draft" once I do it, probably by this weekend.
 
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